Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamerswin 1:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ravensloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Ravens
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
Rubick
d1smar · 13 games
Snapfire
d1smar · 8 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Tusk
PiPi · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 6 games
Mirana
Demon · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
943 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
655 picks · 455 bans
Nature's Prophet
567 picks · 900 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
535 picks · 534 bans
Snapfire
507 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
482 picks · 1064 bans
Clockwerk
459 picks · 338 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 35%
Hero pool strength57% Dreamers
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total60% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Dreamers 40%Ravens 60%
The model gave 60% on Ravens — the game was taken by Dreamers.
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 60%
Series resultDreamers 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1