Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamerswin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
South Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
South Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 438 bans
Mars
462 picks · 686 bans
Dragon Knight
433 picks · 540 bans
Bane
421 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
358 picks · 595 bans
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 578 bans
Chaos Knight
336 picks · 650 bans
Sand King
335 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Dreamers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% South Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:18
Dreamers 40%South Team 60%
The model gave 60% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 43:31.
Game 2prediction correct15:29
Dreamers 40%South Team 60%
The model gave 60% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 34:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Team · 60%
Series resultDreamers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2