Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Drink Waterwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atomic Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Drink Water
No games played over 6 months.
Atomic Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Marb · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Marb · 3 games
Tiny
Nishababy · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Marb · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Marb · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 313 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 267 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 521 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 561 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 321 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Atomic Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Drink Water
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:10
Drink Water 68%Atomic Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Atomic Esports in 30:34.
Game 2prediction missed38:27
Drink Water 68%Atomic Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Atomic Esports in 40:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrink Water · 68%
Series resultDrink Water 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2