Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Drink Waterwin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team M11loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Drink Water
No games played over 6 months.
Team M11
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 254 bans
Marci
316 picks · 557 bans
Undying
284 picks · 467 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 196 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 435 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 516 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 298 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Drink Water
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Drink Water
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:39
Drink Water 66%Team M11 34%
The model gave 66% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Team M11 in 41:54.
Game 2prediction missed35:19
Drink Water 66%Team M11 34%
The model gave 66% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Team M11 in 37:20.
Game 3prediction missed31:22
Drink Water 66%Team M11 34%
The model gave 66% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Team M11 in 33:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrink Water · 66%
Series resultDrink Water 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3