Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Drink Waterloss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Drink Water
No games played over 6 months.
Yangon Galacticos
Tinysignature
Ksh · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Outworld Destroyer
Young PH · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 327 bans
Tusk
301 picks · 288 bans
Marci
273 picks · 518 bans
Undying
252 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 545 bans
Primal Beast
229 picks · 587 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 336 bans
Snapfire
211 picks · 113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 75%
Hero pool strength60% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Drink Water
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:36
Drink Water 57%Yangon Galacticos 43%
The model gave 57% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 41:29.
Game 2prediction missed19:35
Drink Water 57%Yangon Galacticos 43%
The model gave 57% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 36:45.
Game 3prediction missed15:32
Drink Water 57%Yangon Galacticos 43%
The model gave 57% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 33:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrink Water · 57%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3