?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
DuBuloss 0:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
GRIN esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DuBu

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
DuBu · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
MSS · 5 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 4 games
25%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
75%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Speeed · 4 games
25%

GRIN esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Arms · 2 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Arms · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Arms · 2 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 451 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
277 picks · 413 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
239 picks · 217 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
236 picks · 129 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
230 picks · 660 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
230 picks · 215 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
228 picks · 316 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% DuBu
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% DuBu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
DuBu 59%GRIN esports 41%
The model gave 59% on DuBu — the game was taken by GRIN esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteDuBu · 59%
Series resultGRIN esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1