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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Dudley boyswin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Starsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dudley boys

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
9Class · 2 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
100%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Yuma · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yuma · 1 game
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Xakoda · 1 game
100%

Keyd Stars

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
18%
Tusk
Tusk
Kingrd · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 8 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Kingrd · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Costabile · 7 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
4nalog · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 7 games
29%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
KJ · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 319 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
252 picks · 112 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
226 picks · 230 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 477 bans
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
207 picks · 290 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
203 picks · 400 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
188 picks · 255 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
186 picks · 452 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Dudley boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Dudley boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:21
Dudley boys 57%Keyd Stars 43%
The model gave 57% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 34:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaAdzantick
51% · 162 games44% · 53 games
LifestealerCostabile
Lifestealer
Meepo
MeepoYuma
53% · 9 games54% · 47 games
TimbersawFCR
Timbersaw
Dazzle
DazzleMinD_ContRoL
43% · 26 games49% · 157 games
Tiny4nalog
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner9Class
50% · 108 games50% · 161 game
Nature's ProphetKJ
Nature's Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixXakoda
51% · 178 games52% · 65 games
Dark WillowKingrd
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct36:15
Dudley boys 57%Keyd Stars 43%
The model gave 57% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 21:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuma
55% · 52 games53% · 65 games
LunaCostabile
Luna
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMinD_ContRoL
47% · 141 game56% · 101 game
Queen of Pain4nalog
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierAdzantick
43% · 248 games49% · 90 games
BrewmasterFCR
Brewmaster
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
48% · 100 games44% · 170 games
Dark WillowKingrd
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXakoda
55% · 104 games56% · 219 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteDudley boys · 64%
Series resultDudley boys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2