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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Eaglewin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Darkhorseloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Eagle

Muerta
Muerta
ukiyo · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hara · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mercy · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hara · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%

Darkhorse

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 349 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
340 picks · 328 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
323 picks · 520 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
311 picks · 454 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
299 picks · 229 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
289 picks · 170 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
282 picks · 429 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
281 picks · 529 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Eagle
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Darkhorse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:31
Eagle 48%Darkhorse 52%
The model gave 52% on Darkhorse — the game was taken by Darkhorse in 39:19.
Game 2prediction missed25:12
Eagle 48%Darkhorse 52%
The model gave 52% on Darkhorse — the game was taken by Eagle in 31:48.
Game 3prediction missed39:27
Eagle 48%Darkhorse 52%
The model gave 52% on Darkhorse — the game was taken by Eagle in 46:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteDarkhorse · 52%
Series resultEagle 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3