ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Eagleloss 0:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Evil Rabbitwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eagle
Muertaoften banned
Tz. · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Shadow Demon
mercy · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
mercy · 2 games
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Evil Rabbit
Luna
Q7 · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 428 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 629 bans
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Eagle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Eagle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Eagle 59%Evil Rabbit 41%
The model gave 59% on Eagle — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit.
Model check result
Model favoriteEagle · 59%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1