DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionEGEarth Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
chandogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Earth Gaming
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Razoroften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Ringmaster
Zxca · 1 game
Tiny
Zxca · 1 game
chandogs
Gyrocopteroften banned
Argius · 2 games
Luna
Argius · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Argius · 1 game
Kunkka
mini-` · 1 game
Leshrac
mini-` · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
636 picks · 697 bans
Tiny
513 picks · 454 bans
Tusk
484 picks · 390 bans
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
405 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1070 bans
Puck
381 picks · 800 bans
Mars
377 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Earth Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% chandogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Earth Gaming 35%chandogs 65%
The model gave 65% on chandogs — the game was taken by chandogs.
Game 2prediction correct
Earth Gaming 35%chandogs 65%
The model gave 65% on chandogs — the game was taken by chandogs.
Model check result
Model favoritechandogs · 65%
Series resultchandogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2