FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Edgewin 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Edge
Muerta
Michael · 5 games
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
Slardar
PiPi · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Elder Titan
Yadomi · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
payk · 3 games
MOUZ
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 21 game
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 16 games
Magnussignature
Force · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 16 games
Clockwerk
Fly · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
465 picks · 461 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 568 bans
Ringmaster
326 picks · 148 bans
Phantom Assassin
283 picks · 582 bans
Terrorblade
277 picks · 518 bans
Bristleback
268 picks · 491 bans
Muerta
265 picks · 150 bans
Beastmaster
264 picks · 570 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:6
Edge 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Edge in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Magepayk
Wraith KingKami
TinyPiPi
Dragon KnightW1sh-
KunkkaVitaly
Medusazeal
TinkerMichael
Nature's ProphetSeleri
RingmasterYadomi
JakiroEkki
Game 2prediction missed45:12
Edge 40%MOUZ 60%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Edge in 32:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinpayk
MorphlingKami
PangolierPiPi
Bristlebackzeal
EnigmaVitaly
TinyW1sh-
WarlockYadomi
SlarkSeleri
TuskMichael
Ancient ApparitionEkki
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 68%
Series resultEdge 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2