Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EgoBoysloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Latam Defenderswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Latam Defenders
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 3 games
Mirana
Moonlight · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Valquiria · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Cucahook · 2 games
Oracle
Aretes · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
93 picks · 207 bans
Mars
87 picks · 185 bans
Earth Spirit
82 picks · 63 bans
Void Spirit
71 picks · 128 bans
Phoenix
60 picks · 71 bans
Rubick
59 picks · 31 bans
Undying
57 picks · 77 bans
Wraith King
57 picks · 58 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% EgoBoys
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total50% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:24
EgoBoys 50%Latam Defenders 50%
The model gave 50% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 38:19.
Game 2prediction missed23:9
EgoBoys 50%Latam Defenders 50%
The model gave 50% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 20:19.
Game 3prediction missed22:38
EgoBoys 50%Latam Defenders 50%
The model gave 50% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 41:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 50%
Series resultLatam Defenders 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3