Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EgoBoyswin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NoPing VPNloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
NoPing VPN
Juggernautoften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
Earth Spirit
Matthew · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Michael · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Mariano · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Accel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
126 picks · 233 bans
Puck
125 picks · 285 bans
Earth Spirit
112 picks · 93 bans
Void Spirit
105 picks · 159 bans
Phoenix
100 picks · 104 bans
Nyx Assassin
80 picks · 281 bans
Keeper of the Light
79 picks · 153 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 58%
Series resultEgoBoys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect