Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EgoBoysloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Unknownwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unknown
Earth Spirit
Wij · 3 games
Earthshaker
Wij · 3 games
Enchantress
Yadomi · 3 games
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 3 games
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
184 picks · 414 bans
Mars
172 picks · 314 bans
Earth Spirit
162 picks · 130 bans
Void Spirit
159 picks · 228 bans
Phoenix
137 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
128 picks · 214 bans
Nyx Assassin
122 picks · 412 bans
Rubick
119 picks · 64 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Team Unknown
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 57%
Series resultTeam Unknown 0:2
Series predictioncorrect