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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 18 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
CatYou · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 12 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Lwwnb · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
13%
Mirana
Miranasignature
CatYou · 8 games
63%

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 14 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 10 games
40%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 10 games
80%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
dyrachyo · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
696 picks · 439 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
588 picks · 546 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 445 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
495 picks · 556 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
389 picks · 383 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
389 picks · 215 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
354 picks · 546 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
351 picks · 515 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:26
EHOME 26%Gaimin Gladiators 74%
The model gave 74% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 24:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNight
50% · 202 games56% · 100 games
Naga Sirendyrachyo
Naga Siren
Ursa
Ursamks-
52% · 158 games51% · 163 games
TimbersawQuinn
Timbersaw
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderxiaoyu154
45% · 50 games49% · 75 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskCatYou
48% · 347 games49% · 384 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressLwwnb
45% · 170 games53% · 205 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Game 2prediction correct7:14
EHOME 26%Gaimin Gladiators 74%
The model gave 74% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 14:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNight
53% · 151 game56% · 193 games
Linadyrachyo
Lina
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetxiaoyu154
46% · 212 games49% · 37 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Legion Commander
Legion Commandermks-
52% · 48 games50% · 220 games
BatriderQuinn
Batrider
Tusk
TuskCatYou
48% · 363 games49% · 252 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Disruptor
DisruptorLwwnb
52% · 113 games46% · 185 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 87%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2