Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Hoodwink
Frisk · 4 games
Linaoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Lion
xNova · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Sylar · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 4 games
Phoenix
xNova · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Xm · 3 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
378 picks · 536 bans
Bane
376 picks · 267 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 208 bans
Weaver
316 picks · 735 bans
Queen of Pain
258 picks · 341 bans
Io
246 picks · 615 bans
Disruptor
243 picks · 156 bans
Ember Spirit
241 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% EHOME
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total70% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:17
EHOME 30%Invictus Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 27:42.
Game 2prediction correct22:29
EHOME 30%Invictus Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 48:35.
Game 3prediction missed38:11
EHOME 30%Invictus Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 33:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 70%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3