Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Bane
zzq · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 13 games
Rubick
pLAnet · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 10 games
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 8 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
shiro · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
7e · 7 games
Razoroften banned
Echo · 7 games
LBZS
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Mirana
CatYou · 5 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Tusk
CatYou · 5 games
Dragon Knight
Molasses · 4 games
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
442 picks · 263 bans
Mars
396 picks · 548 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 611 bans
Tiny
310 picks · 362 bans
Weaver
305 picks · 389 bans
Ember Spirit
279 picks · 397 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 449 bans
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 23%
Hero pool strength57% EHOME
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:12
EHOME 59%LBZS 41%
The model gave 59% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 24:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingshiro
TinyFonte
Void SpiritEcho
NecrophosMolasses
Sand Kingzeal
InvokerShanks
MiranapLAnet
TuskCatYou
Shadow Demonzzq
Game 2prediction correct40:15
EHOME 57%LBZS 43%
The model gave 57% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinshiro
MedusaFonte
InvokerEcho
LeshracShanks
Dragon Knightzeal
Night StalkerMolasses
MiranapLAnet
HoodwinkCatYou
Grimstrokezzq
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 65%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2