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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 1:2
series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Bane
Banesignature
zzq · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 4 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
7e · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
zeal · 4 games
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
7e · 3 games
100%
Razor
Razoroften banned
7e · 3 games
100%

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 19 games
68%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 17 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
92%
Luna
Lunasignature
Ame · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 12 games
92%
Io
Iosignature
XinQ · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
433 picks · 318 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
406 picks · 592 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
342 picks · 409 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
338 picks · 764 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
325 picks · 179 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
266 picks · 444 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
261 picks · 373 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
242 picks · 328 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 78%
Hero pool strength59% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total92% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:21
EHOME 23%LGD Gaming 77%
The model gave 77% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 41:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
59% · 100 games47% · 132 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangolier7e
48% · 134 games65% · 22 games
TinkerNothingToSay
Tinker
Broodmother
Broodmotherzeal
36% · 32 games44% · 121 game
Spirit BreakerFaith_bian
Spirit Breaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
47% · 113 games48% · 136 games
Winter WyvernXinQ
Winter Wyvern
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzzq
55% · 113 games56% · 81 game
Night Stalkery`
Night Stalker
Game 2prediction correct36:27
EHOME 21%LGD Gaming 79%
The model gave 79% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 53:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
46% · 110 games41% · 134 games
KunkkaAme
Kunkka
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernpLAnet
56% · 103 games37% · 25 games
TinkerNothingToSay
Tinker
Batrider
Batrider7e
57% · 112 games51% · 106 games
LycanFaith_bian
Lycan
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerzeal
51% · 97 games50% · 202 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
Bane
Banezzq
54% · 160 games50% · 115 games
Oracley`
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct16:33
EHOME 20%LGD Gaming 80%
The model gave 80% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
51% · 201 game53% · 158 games
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
Pangolier7e
51% · 218 games49% · 53 games
BroodmotherFaith_bian
Broodmother
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
45% · 196 games52% · 342 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerzeal
41% · 86 games52% · 219 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Grimstroke
Grimstrokezzq
49% · 339 games52% · 268 games
Tidehuntery`
Tidehunter
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 92%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3