Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 5 games
Bane
zzq · 4 games
Pangolier
zeal · 3 games
Earthshaker
pLAnet · 2 games
Rubick
pLAnet · 2 games
Snapfire
xNova · 2 games
Visage
zeal · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
xNova · 1 game
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
388 picks · 280 bans
Mars
373 picks · 543 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 181 bans
Weaver
302 picks · 711 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 342 bans
Kunkka
233 picks · 395 bans
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
229 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% EHOME
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total61% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:30
EHOME 39%Royal Never Give Up 61%
The model gave 61% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by EHOME in 50:13.
Game 2prediction correct7:20
EHOME 39%Royal Never Give Up 61%
The model gave 61% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 28:22.
Game 3prediction correct15:26
EHOME 39%Royal Never Give Up 61%
The model gave 61% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 33:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 61%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3