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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 17 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 14 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Frisk · 10 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 7 games
86%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 6 games
50%

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
XCJ · 10 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 7 games
43%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 6 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
September · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 6 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
XCJ · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
September · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
September · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 984 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
419 picks · 576 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 706 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 593 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 306 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
301 picks · 190 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
300 picks · 268 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
268 picks · 408 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 39%
Hero pool strength56% EHOME
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:16
EHOME 66%Sparking Arrow Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSylar
34% · 21 game38% · 4 games
Faceless VoidSon GoKu
Faceless Void
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
48% · 32 games47% · 28 games
Tiny7e
Tiny
Tidehunter
TidehunterChalice
53% · 22 games55% · 60 games
MiranaSrf
Mirana
Snapfire
SnapfireFrisk
36% · 15 games57% · 38 games
Elder TitanXCJ
Elder Titan
Oracle
OraclexNova
54% · 40 games
Game 2prediction correct28:12
EHOME 66%Sparking Arrow Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 30:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSylar
56% · 17 games46% · 60 games
Mirana7e
Mirana
Razor
RazorXm
38% · 4 games61% · 10 games
Centaur WarrunnerSon GoKu
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierChalice
50% · 40 games50% · 10 games
SnapfireSrf
Snapfire
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFrisk
47% · 29 games61% · 15 games
Ancient ApparitionXCJ
Ancient Apparition
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagixNova
44% · 5 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 78%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2