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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Bane
Banesignature
zzq · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
zeal · 4 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
pLAnet · 2 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
shiro · 2 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 2 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xNova · 2 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
7e · 2 games
50%

Team Aster

Lion
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Xxs · 12 games
50%
Lich
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
64%
Windranger
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linasignature
White丶Album · 10 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 10 games
70%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
White丶Album · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
397 picks · 285 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 547 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
311 picks · 176 bans
44%
Weaver
Weaver
300 picks · 716 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
287 picks · 350 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
235 picks · 403 bans
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
231 picks · 155 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 311 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% EHOME
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total66% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:30
EHOME 44%Team Aster 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painshiro
49% · 186 games41% · 130 games
Phantom AssassinMonet
Phantom Assassin
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin7e
61% · 196 games43% · 239 games
LinaOri
Lina
Pangolier
Pangolierzeal
55% · 281 game52% · 123 games
KunkkaXxs
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
48% · 220 games49% · 309 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonzzq
56% · 163 games46% · 245 games
GrimstrokeFantasy
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct7:25
EHOME 40%Team Aster 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 24:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinshiro
44% · 96 games47% · 191 game
LunaMonet
Luna
Mars
Marszeal
49% · 311 games52% · 62 games
BroodmotherXxs
Broodmother
Invoker
Invoker7e
50% · 169 games49% · 188 games
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorpLAnet
54% · 102 games53% · 200 games
MiranaBoBoKa
Mirana
Death Prophet
Death Prophetzzq
50% · 156 games52% · 193 games
BaneFantasy
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 66%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2