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SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Bane
Bane
zzq · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 7 games
86%
Weaver
Weaversignature
zzq · 6 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 5 games
60%

Team Aster

Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 23 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 19 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 17 games
59%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
544 picks · 374 bans
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
478 picks · 569 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
445 picks · 612 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
431 picks · 792 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 170 bans
45%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 573 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
341 picks · 545 bans
53%
Wraith King
Wraith King
285 picks · 344 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total72% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:27
EHOME 37%Team Aster 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingshiro
49% · 296 games55% · 91 game
Troll WarlordMonet
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit7e
56% · 303 games43% · 356 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Brewmaster
Brewmasterzeal
43% · 63 games44% · 229 games
Void SpiritOri
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
47% · 175 games55% · 142 games
Monkey KingBoBoKa
Monkey King
Enchantress
Enchantresszzq
50% · 177 games58% · 196 games
BaneFantasy
Bane
Game 2prediction correct11:32
EHOME 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 21:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend7e
40% · 62 games56% · 171 game
TerrorbladeMonet
Terrorblade
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancershiro
44% · 98 games45% · 208 games
Queen of PainOri
Queen of Pain
Mars
Marszeal
46% · 418 games61% · 45 games
EarthshakerXxs
Earthshaker
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritpLAnet
40% · 58 games61% · 195 games
Monkey KingBoBoKa
Monkey King
Disruptor
Disruptorzzq
47% · 230 games60% · 247 games
BaneFantasy
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 72%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2