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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team MagMaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddon
xNova · 3 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
xNova · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 2 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Frisk · 2 games
0%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
xNova · 2 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 2 games
0%

Team MagMa

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 687 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
321 picks · 401 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 475 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
251 picks · 210 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
225 picks · 124 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
224 picks · 333 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 641 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 435 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Team MagMa
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:4
EHOME 45%Team MagMa 55%
The model gave 55% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by EHOME in 20:17.
Game 2prediction correct11:31
EHOME 45%Team MagMa 55%
The model gave 55% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 28:44.
Game 3prediction missed25:18
EHOME 45%Team MagMa 55%
The model gave 55% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by EHOME in 38:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 55%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3