Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Abaddon
xNova · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
xNova · 2 games
Rubick
Frisk · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Xm · 1 game
Brewmaster
xNova · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Chalice · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 1 game
Vici Gaming
Brewmaster
Dy · 4 games
Earthshaker
Pyw · 3 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 2 games
Oracleoften banned
Dy · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
180 picks · 406 bans
Mars
169 picks · 312 bans
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 126 bans
Void Spirit
158 picks · 220 bans
Phoenix
134 picks · 152 bans
Keeper of the Light
121 picks · 212 bans
Nyx Assassin
117 picks · 406 bans
Rubick
117 picks · 62 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:36
EHOME 44%Vici Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 52:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetXm
LeshracOri
TidehunterChalice
Juggernautpoyoyo
EarthshakerFrisk
BatriderELeVeN
UndyingxNova
PhoenixDy
75% · 4 games
ClockwerkPyw
Game 2prediction correct34:41
EHOME 46%Vici Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 53:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
VenomancerXm
Death ProphetOri
BeastmasterChalice
Bristlebackpoyoyo
PhoenixFrisk
MiranaPyw
BrewmasterxNova
MarsELeVeN
57% · 24 games
Nyx AssassinDy
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 59%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2