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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 19 games
53%
Bane
Bane
zzq · 15 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 15 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 13 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
zeal · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Echo · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
shiro · 8 games
63%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 8 games
75%

Xtreme Gaming

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Paparazi · 13 games
62%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 13 games
69%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 12 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 11 games
73%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
509 picks · 451 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
493 picks · 690 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
458 picks · 289 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 536 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
399 picks · 551 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 635 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 624 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
360 picks · 318 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:30
EHOME 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetshiro
48% · 78 games51% · 159 games
Monkey Kinglou
Monkey King
Leshrac
LeshracEcho
43% · 109 games50% · 177 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierzeal
44% · 295 games65% · 35 games
VisageELeVeN
Visage
Phoenix
PhoenixpLAnet
48% · 130 games51% · 169 games
SnapfirePyw
Snapfire
Marci
Marcizzq
51% · 33 games58% · 105 games
Treant ProtectorDy
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct20:30
EHOME 49%Xtreme Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
53% · 216 games59% · 178 games
Monkey Kinglou
Monkey King
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerzeal
42% · 38 games50% · 212 games
PangolierPaparazi
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEcho
41% · 200 games57% · 36 games
UnderlordELeVeN
Underlord
Lion
LionpLAnet
46% · 174 games50% · 104 games
EnchantressDy
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenzzq
45% · 26 games55% · 124 games
Keeper of the LightPyw
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 51%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2