Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Electronic Boyswin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Jiang Huloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Electronic Boys
Witch Doctor
albinozebra · 4 games
Jakiro
albinozebra · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
albinozebra · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Giant · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Giant · 2 games
Rikioften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Jiang Hu
Mirana
txhyoo1 · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
P1 · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
P1 · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
P1 · 1 game
Tiny
P1 · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
P1 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
236 picks · 500 bans
Void Spirit
217 picks · 269 bans
Mars
203 picks · 370 bans
Earth Spirit
189 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
163 picks · 271 bans
Phoenix
159 picks · 185 bans
Nyx Assassin
156 picks · 504 bans
Wraith King
147 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 29%
Hero pool strength55% Jiang Hu
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Jiang Hu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:20
Electronic Boys 45%Jiang Hu 55%
The model gave 55% on Jiang Hu — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautSpeeed
PuckP1
Nature's ProphetGiant
Monkey Kingred2
Witch Doctoralbinozebra
Game 2prediction correct14:33
Electronic Boys 44%Jiang Hu 56%
The model gave 56% on Jiang Hu — the game was taken by Jiang Hu in 30:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSpeeed
PuckP1
TimbersawGiant
Earth Spiritred2
Witch Doctoralbinozebra
Game 3prediction missed36:32
Electronic Boys 44%Jiang Hu 56%
The model gave 56% on Jiang Hu — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 49:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingSpeeed
Void SpiritP1
Puckred2
VenomancerGiant
Witch Doctoralbinozebra
Model check result
Model favoriteJiang Hu · 57%
Series resultElectronic Boys 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3