Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Electronic Boysloss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KBU.USwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Electronic Boys
Grimstroke
albinozebra · 6 games
Clockwerk
b1kA · 4 games
Dark Willow
b1kA · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Speeed · 4 games
Ogre Magi
albinozebra · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Speeed · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Oklahoma · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
albinozebra · 3 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
407 picks · 292 bans
Mars
384 picks · 552 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 177 bans
Weaver
303 picks · 725 bans
Queen of Pain
297 picks · 357 bans
Kunkka
239 picks · 411 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 156 bans
Ember Spirit
233 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:40
Electronic Boys 27%KBU.US 73%
The model gave 73% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 36:07.
Game 2prediction missed35:23
Electronic Boys 27%KBU.US 73%
The model gave 73% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 33:00.
Game 3prediction correct19:30
Electronic Boys 27%KBU.US 73%
The model gave 73% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 30:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 73%
Series resultKBU.US 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3