OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 13 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 12 games
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 9 games
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 8 games
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 168 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 467 bans
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 614 bans
Mars
298 picks · 523 bans
Puck
297 picks · 693 bans
Hoodwink
264 picks · 111 bans
Enchantress
260 picks · 340 bans
Lina
258 picks · 332 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Elephant
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:11
Elephant 55%Aster.Aries 45%
The model gave 55% on Elephant — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 33:43.
Game 2prediction missed15:25
Elephant 55%Aster.Aries 45%
The model gave 55% on Elephant — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 25:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 55%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2