Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EHOMEloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
EHOME
Tusk
xNova · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 15 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 9 games
Grimstroke
Frisk · 9 games
Lunasignature
Frisk · 8 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
451 picks · 988 bans
Void Spirit
427 picks · 593 bans
Death Prophet
369 picks · 694 bans
Mars
352 picks · 608 bans
Earth Spirit
321 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 183 bans
Grimstroke
283 picks · 247 bans
Phoenix
279 picks · 391 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% EHOME
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total61% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:28
Elephant 39%EHOME 61%
The model gave 61% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 27:03.
Game 2prediction correct34:21
Elephant 39%EHOME 61%
The model gave 61% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 34:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 61%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2