Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
105 picks · 230 bans
Mars
98 picks · 201 bans
Earth Spirit
91 picks · 72 bans
Void Spirit
80 picks · 136 bans
Phoenix
76 picks · 80 bans
Rubick
65 picks · 33 bans
Undying
64 picks · 84 bans
Nyx Assassin
63 picks · 225 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:27
Elephant 41%Invictus Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 36:52.
Game 2prediction correct29:12
Elephant 41%Invictus Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 32:04.
Game 3prediction correct21:15
Elephant 41%Invictus Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 38:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 59%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3