Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 6 games
Tusksignature
XinQ · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ame · 5 games
Mirana
XinQ · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 810 bans
Void Spirit
355 picks · 487 bans
Mars
305 picks · 536 bans
Death Prophet
272 picks · 442 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 230 bans
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
Keeper of the Light
237 picks · 500 bans
Wraith King
234 picks · 356 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 64%
Hero pool strength61% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:14
Elephant 39%LGD Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:22.
Game 2prediction correct36:18
Elephant 39%LGD Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 61%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2