The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Quincy Crewwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
300 picks · 180 bans
Mars
289 picks · 397 bans
Lina
278 picks · 560 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 372 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 256 bans
Hoodwink
243 picks · 88 bans
Tidehunter
240 picks · 405 bans
Void Spirit
222 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 27%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:6
Elephant 55%Quincy Crew 45%
The model gave 55% on Elephant — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 32:08.
Game 2prediction missed34:38
Elephant 55%Quincy Crew 45%
The model gave 55% on Elephant — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 1:02:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 55%
Series resultQuincy Crew 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2