Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Monkey Kingoften banned
Monet · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
LaNm · 3 games
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 3 games
Abaddon
LaNm · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Xxs · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
White丶Album · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
116 picks · 258 bans
Mars
111 picks · 222 bans
Earth Spirit
102 picks · 84 bans
Void Spirit
96 picks · 149 bans
Phoenix
92 picks · 95 bans
Rubick
75 picks · 36 bans
Keeper of the Light
70 picks · 135 bans
Nyx Assassin
70 picks · 258 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 71%
Hero pool strength60% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:24
Elephant 25%Team Aster 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:15.
Game 2prediction correct11:19
Elephant 25%Team Aster 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 75%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2