FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:1series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Gyrocoptersignature
LaNm · 10 games
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 8 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 8 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 7 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Monet · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 902 bans
Void Spirit
370 picks · 544 bans
Mars
322 picks · 587 bans
Death Prophet
288 picks · 534 bans
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 252 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 392 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 524 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength63% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total72% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:24
Elephant 28%Team Aster 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 26:19.
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Elephant 28%Team Aster 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 44:21.
Game 3prediction correct11:28
Elephant 28%Team Aster 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 72%
Series resultElephant 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3