i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Abaddon
LaNm · 17 games
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 16 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 10 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 970 bans
Void Spirit
375 picks · 527 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 712 bans
Mars
339 picks · 558 bans
Grimstroke
331 picks · 332 bans
Lion
303 picks · 165 bans
Tusk
300 picks · 221 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total73% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:25
Elephant 27%Team Aster 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:55.
Game 2prediction correct22:10
Elephant 27%Team Aster 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 26:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 73%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2