Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
379 picks · 800 bans
Void Spirit
353 picks · 478 bans
Mars
301 picks · 530 bans
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 229 bans
Death Prophet
268 picks · 431 bans
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
Keeper of the Light
236 picks · 493 bans
Wraith King
231 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:28
Elephant 71%Team MagMa 29%
The model gave 71% on Elephant — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 35:58.
Game 2prediction missed21:39
Elephant 71%Team MagMa 29%
The model gave 71% on Elephant — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 39:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 71%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2