Ember Enjoyers vs BarrancoBar — prediction DS2ОО · Dota 2

DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

EEEmber Enjoyersloss 1:2

series probability

34%66%

probability at match start · final 1:2

BBarrancoBarwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ember Enjoyers

Abaddonoften banned

drakesh1t · 1 game

Dawnbreakeroften banned

drakesh1t · 1 game

Doomoften banned

DM · 1 game

Kunkka

DM · 1 game

Tiny

Robo-Z · 1 game

Windrangeroften banned

Robo-Z · 1 game

BarrancoBar

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

654 picks · 743 bans

49%

Tiny

535 picks · 488 bans

49%

Tusk

493 picks · 404 bans

49%

Warlock

445 picks · 303 bans

48%

Shadow Demon

407 picks · 1103 bans

56%

Phoenix

398 picks · 330 bans

55%

Puck

388 picks · 801 bans

52%

Mars

385 picks · 579 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength56% BarrancoBar

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total66% BarrancoBar

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct26:47

Ember Enjoyers 41%BarrancoBar 59%

The model gave 59% on BarrancoBar — the game was taken by BarrancoBar in 44:26.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo