ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
718 picks · 537 bans
Puck
509 picks · 1015 bans
Dawnbreaker
446 picks · 561 bans
Marci
422 picks · 752 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 192 bans
Winter Wyvern
349 picks · 372 bans
Zeus
315 picks · 357 bans
Razor
301 picks · 610 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 18%
Hero pool strength50% Entity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:33
Entity 87%Alliance 13%
The model gave 87% on Entity — the game was taken by Alliance in 32:16.
Game 2prediction missed10:38
Entity 87%Alliance 13%
The model gave 87% on Entity — the game was taken by Alliance in 23:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 87%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2