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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

No games played over 6 months.

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 24 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 19 games
74%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 17 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Tims · 15 games
40%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skem · 15 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
697 picks · 504 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
501 picks · 981 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
407 picks · 521 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
386 picks · 201 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
380 picks · 689 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
326 picks · 310 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
296 picks · 502 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
295 picks · 626 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:17
Entity 51%BOOM Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:24.
Game 2prediction missed26:7
Entity 51%BOOM Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:41.
Game 3prediction missed9:29
Entity 51%BOOM Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 51%
Series resultEntity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3