Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CHILLAXloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
369 picks · 547 bans
Bane
334 picks · 259 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 203 bans
Weaver
316 picks · 709 bans
Monkey King
252 picks · 758 bans
Tidehunter
249 picks · 387 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 154 bans
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Entity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:31
Entity 78%CHILLAX 22%
The model gave 78% on Entity — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 26:17.
Game 2prediction missed17:47
Entity 78%CHILLAX 22%
The model gave 78% on Entity — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 27:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 78%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2