PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Evil Geniuses
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 8 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 6 games
Bane
Wij · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
693 picks · 496 bans
Puck
490 picks · 990 bans
Dawnbreaker
399 picks · 508 bans
Snapfire
387 picks · 194 bans
Marci
365 picks · 678 bans
Mars
331 picks · 546 bans
Winter Wyvern
317 picks · 292 bans
Monkey King
306 picks · 636 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:36
Entity 60%Evil Geniuses 40%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 44:27.
Game 2prediction missed26:6
Entity 60%Evil Geniuses 40%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 27:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 60%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2