DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Evil Geniuses
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 16 games
Rikisignature
Matthew · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 14 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
Rubick
Matthew · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
978 picks · 663 bans
Tiny
661 picks · 476 bans
Nature's Prophet
588 picks · 940 bans
Tusk
557 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 522 bans
Snapfire
521 picks · 349 bans
Death Prophet
508 picks · 1115 bans
Clockwerk
478 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total70% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:40
Entity 30%Evil Geniuses 70%
The model gave 70% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 1:04:38.
Game 2prediction correct17:35
Entity 30%Evil Geniuses 70%
The model gave 70% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 33:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 70%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2