Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Watson · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Fishman · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 1 game
Elder Titan
Fishman · 1 game
Grimstroke
Kataomi · 1 game
Hoodwink
Kataomi · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 1 game
Gaimin Gladiators
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 25 games
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 18 games
Rubick
tOfu · 18 games
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
Hoodwink
tOfu · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
386 picks · 702 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 374 bans
Weaver
322 picks · 620 bans
Clockwerk
321 picks · 467 bans
Hoodwink
320 picks · 256 bans
Rubick
319 picks · 212 bans
Dark Willow
305 picks · 350 bans
Pangolier
295 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:12
Entity 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:17.
Game 2prediction correct41:10
Entity 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 53%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2