Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Goonsquadloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
490 picks · 447 bans
Mars
489 picks · 684 bans
Bane
461 picks · 284 bans
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 512 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 569 bans
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 651 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 603 bans
Grimstroke
352 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 83%
Hero pool strength50% Entity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Entity 50%Goonsquad 50%
The model gave 50% on Entity — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 37:27.
Game 2prediction missed33:22
Entity 50%Goonsquad 50%
The model gave 50% on Entity — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 44:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 50%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2