?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 1 game
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Watson · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Fishman · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Kataomi · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
No[o]ne · 1 game
0%

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
niu · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 15 games
27%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 14 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 14 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Setsu · 13 games
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 12 games
42%
Weaver
Weaversignature
shiro · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 636 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 372 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 433 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
314 picks · 518 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 405 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 113 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
298 picks · 563 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 42%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:24
Entity 75%LGD Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on Entity — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:26.
Game 2prediction missed41:20
Entity 75%LGD Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on Entity — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 75%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2