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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

No games played over 6 months.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 15 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 11 games
27%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 10 games
20%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mr. Luck · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
380 picks · 349 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
336 picks · 325 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 504 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
308 picks · 440 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
293 picks · 218 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
285 picks · 162 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
279 picks · 420 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
275 picks · 511 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Entity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:23
Entity 78%MarsBet Team 22%
The model gave 78% on Entity — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 55:52.
Game 2prediction missed34:19
Entity 78%MarsBet Team 22%
The model gave 78% on Entity — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 35:11.
Game 3prediction missed35:16
Entity 78%MarsBet Team 22%
The model gave 78% on Entity — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 34:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 78%
Series resultEntity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3