Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
MOUZ
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 3 games
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
Force · 2 games
Gyrocopter
NARMAN · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 2 games
Omniknight
Force · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 2 games
Sven
Ulnit · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
384 picks · 352 bans
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 332 bans
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 520 bans
Mars
313 picks · 459 bans
Techies
302 picks · 234 bans
Hoodwink
296 picks · 173 bans
Batrider
289 picks · 541 bans
Pangolier
282 picks · 431 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength62% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:12
Entity 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on Entity — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:40.
Game 2prediction missed34:24
Entity 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on Entity — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 68%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2