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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 1 game
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Watson · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Fishman · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Kataomi · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
No[o]ne · 1 game
0%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 44 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 43 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 38 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 36 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 29 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 28 games
57%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 23 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 661 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 367 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 452 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
311 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
309 picks · 581 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
303 picks · 188 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
294 picks · 212 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
285 picks · 534 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% MOUZ
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total81% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:28
Entity 81%MOUZ 19%
The model gave 81% on Entity — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:39.
Game 2prediction missed22:41
Entity 81%MOUZ 19%
The model gave 81% on Entity — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 81%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2