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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

No games played over 6 months.

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 16 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KuroKy · 16 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
44%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Yuma · 8 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
474 picks · 506 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
452 picks · 217 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
398 picks · 668 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 615 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
337 picks · 708 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
329 picks · 765 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
314 picks · 524 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
313 picks · 645 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total61% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:9
Entity 39%Nigma Galaxy 61%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:21.
Game 2prediction correct34:11
Entity 39%Nigma Galaxy 61%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:32.
Game 3prediction correct19:45
Entity 39%Nigma Galaxy 61%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 59:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 61%
Series resultEntity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3