1win Series Dota 2 Summer · BO1
result vs prediction
Entitywin 1:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 15 games
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 14 games
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 13 games
Windranger
Miracle- · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 11 games
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
401 picks · 623 bans
Gyrocopter
348 picks · 370 bans
Crystal Maiden
340 picks · 129 bans
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 442 bans
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 417 bans
Rubick
312 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 551 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total89% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:7
Entity 89%Nigma Galaxy 11%
The model gave 89% on Entity — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 23:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 89%
Series resultEntity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1